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Market remains hot but sales cool

Machinery makers face shortages of parts, supply chain delays, rising costs for labour and transportation as COVID disrupts the business.

Farm equipment sales are down for Canada and United States, with Canada showing significant drops from last year on the largest gear.

This year, four-wheel drive tractors and combines in Canada saw sales fall 22 percent from last season at this time.

American numbers were better, but followed the same trend, with four-wheel drive tractors off six percent and combines down two percent.

“Combines were up last month (year over year in Canada). But down is the trend right now,” said Curt Blades of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

“They are selling, but there are a lot of factors at play in a very unusual time for the farm equipment industry,” he said.

Farmers, in many cases, are in positions to buy new equipment this year. High input costs are causing some concern, however even higher commodity prices have left many producers in North America with some optimism about the future and Blades said that has a big influence on sales.

“Trouble isn’t with demand. We have come off two years of white-hot demand. But the manufacturers have found themselves tested to be able to supply it,” he said.

“You might hear in the national news that the COVID-slowed supply chain issues are improving. Maybe up to 80 percent OK, now? But you need 100 percent to deliver a tractor or combine. Eighty percent won’t get it done.”

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The daily chart is ugly as is the weekly chart. Bitcoin has broken the long-term channel bull.
The weakness has spilled over into stocks as investors sell high risk stocks like in the AI crowd as they worry that the growth rates are unsustainable.
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The highly anticipated NVDA 3rd quarter earnings did not disappoint as revenues are accelerating with the new Blackwell chip.
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There is a growing concern about Brazil’s soybean planting pace falling behind from irregular rains.
Ther Trump administration lowered tariffs on MAP, DAP and potash a WIN for farmers, but we still need China a major phosphate exporter to release more supplies and lessen the pain moving forward.
The Trump administration delaying the biofuel import credit cuts on biofuels will weigh on soyoil futures but may have also put in a near-term ceiling in soybeans as we need to constantly feed the bull.
Trump promised to wage a war on high U.S. beef prices and finally removed the 40% tariffs on coffee and beef.
The daily chart looks ugly on live and feeder cattle futures, but the weekly chart shows a correction in a long-term bull market.
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We estimate the funds are long soybean futures anywhere between 100,000 top 160,000 vs. record long 253,000 in 2012.