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Market remains hot but sales cool

Machinery makers face shortages of parts, supply chain delays, rising costs for labour and transportation as COVID disrupts the business.

Farm equipment sales are down for Canada and United States, with Canada showing significant drops from last year on the largest gear.

This year, four-wheel drive tractors and combines in Canada saw sales fall 22 percent from last season at this time.

American numbers were better, but followed the same trend, with four-wheel drive tractors off six percent and combines down two percent.

“Combines were up last month (year over year in Canada). But down is the trend right now,” said Curt Blades of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

“They are selling, but there are a lot of factors at play in a very unusual time for the farm equipment industry,” he said.

Farmers, in many cases, are in positions to buy new equipment this year. High input costs are causing some concern, however even higher commodity prices have left many producers in North America with some optimism about the future and Blades said that has a big influence on sales.

“Trouble isn’t with demand. We have come off two years of white-hot demand. But the manufacturers have found themselves tested to be able to supply it,” he said.

“You might hear in the national news that the COVID-slowed supply chain issues are improving. Maybe up to 80 percent OK, now? But you need 100 percent to deliver a tractor or combine. Eighty percent won’t get it done.”

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2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid


The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.