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Market remains hot but sales cool

Machinery makers face shortages of parts, supply chain delays, rising costs for labour and transportation as COVID disrupts the business.

Farm equipment sales are down for Canada and United States, with Canada showing significant drops from last year on the largest gear.

This year, four-wheel drive tractors and combines in Canada saw sales fall 22 percent from last season at this time.

American numbers were better, but followed the same trend, with four-wheel drive tractors off six percent and combines down two percent.

“Combines were up last month (year over year in Canada). But down is the trend right now,” said Curt Blades of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers.

“They are selling, but there are a lot of factors at play in a very unusual time for the farm equipment industry,” he said.

Farmers, in many cases, are in positions to buy new equipment this year. High input costs are causing some concern, however even higher commodity prices have left many producers in North America with some optimism about the future and Blades said that has a big influence on sales.

“Trouble isn’t with demand. We have come off two years of white-hot demand. But the manufacturers have found themselves tested to be able to supply it,” he said.

“You might hear in the national news that the COVID-slowed supply chain issues are improving. Maybe up to 80 percent OK, now? But you need 100 percent to deliver a tractor or combine. Eighty percent won’t get it done.”

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
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A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.