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Penner Gives Sask Pulse Market Outlook

Saskatchewan Pulse Growers holding their annual winter pulse meetings.
 
Chuck Penner with LeftField Commodity Research gave a market outlook to producers in Swift Current yesterday.
 
Canada had a larger pea crop last year and saw strong demand with China buying two million tonnes in 2019.
 
He notes that we had moderate ending stocks for 2019-20 and new crop pea bids are kind of mediocre:
 
“ So, they're not going to inspire a whole lot of interest from farmers so my best guess is probably kind of flat acres. And that could actually help prices longer term because you know if you have average yields, and we continue to have strong demand, especially from China. We’ll see supplies tighten up a little bit more.”
 
He says for Lentils, India has been buying sizeable volumes again even with the tariffs, but the real advantage has been Turkey’s interest in Red Lentils.
 
When it comes to Chickpea’s most countries he says are dropping acreage because of the burdensome stocks; noting it will take a long time to chew through the supplies.
 
Pea Outlook
 
* Quality concerns, especially for greens
 
*China strong demand
 
*Poor Indian demand outlook
 
*Moderate ending stocks for 19/20
 
*Could tighten up a bit more, giving more price strength
 
*Steady (?) acres for 2020 - lower supplies with smaller carry-in
 
Lentil Outlook
 
*Quality concerns, more so for greens
 
*Increased demand from Turkey & India
 
*Good Indian crop prospects, harvested within weeks
 
*Tighter ending stocks for 19/20
 
*More price strength possible from Turkey
 
*Small bump in 2020 acres should be manageable - won't weigh on prices unless yields high
 
Chickpea Outlook
 
*High prices two years ago caused supplies to spike
 
*Taking a long time to chew through supplies - Canadian exports weak
 
*Most countries dropping area in 2020
 
*Might still take another year to finally use up burdensome stocks
 
*Small recovery later in 2020/21
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