As ‘Trade War II’ rages on and global commerce is re-shuffled, the North American trade bloc stands out as one of our most powerful collective assets (Figure 1). The geographic proximity and characteristics of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico make this union ideal for creating secure, efficient and resilient supply chains. This is true across industries but especially food and agriculture.
As an American who does business internationally, I believe strengthening this relationship should have been our number-one geopolitical and economic priority. It is both surprising and disappointing that it has instead become a flashpoint in global tensions.
For decades, the North American pork industry has been bolstered by cross-border integration and cooperation. The industry has operated as a continental system: live hogs flow south for finishing, American feed grains move north and finished pork products flow both ways. It’s a model of efficiency that has served us all well.
The recent imposition of steep U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures contradict the strategic goal of strengthening this union. I’ve been delaying my writing of this article in the hope I could share more encouraging news of an announced deal. As of writing, however, the August deadline imposed by the Trump administration has expired, and Canada is facing 35 per cent tariffs – an increase from the 25 per cent tariffs on all imports not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), also known as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Additional responses by Canada are being discussed, but nothing concrete has emerged.
Fortunately, most pork industry impacts have, so far, been limited. Pork and live pig exports from Canada to the U.S. are included in the CUSMA compliance exemption, provided paperwork is in order. In fact, the Bank of Canada estimates 95 per cent of all Canadian exports to the U.S. are exempt. While some U.S. pork products are technically included in the retaliatory Canadian tariffs imposed in March, the actual impact has been minimal. Slight reductions have been noted in U.S. pork exports to Canada in recent months but most can be attributed to non-tariff related issues. Still, the uncertainty is troubling, and the broader issues may impact input costs for producers and affect pork demand. Producers on both sides of the border worry that escalation could drag pork directly into the fray.
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