Pork producers around the globe are taking a cautious, yet strategic approach, to expansion in 2025 as uncertainty surrounding crop production, tariffs and trade, and lingering domestic and foreign animal diseases remains. Instead, producers are prioritizing productivity, cost efficiency and meeting changing consumer needs, according to the latest RaboResearch report, Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2025.
Despite modest growth this year, Chenjun Pan, senior analyst – animal protein for RaboResearch and lead author of the report, projects positive production conditions. “Manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health are expected to support stable global pork supply, which is forecast to grow by less than 1% this year. Regional supply and demand balances vary, with sufficient supply in the U.S., China and Brazil, and tighter supply in the EU, Japan and the Philippines.”
Pan notes retaliatory tariffs on agricultural goods, including pork, are likely following President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies. A ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia conflict could also add uncertainty to global grain prices, and in turn to pork production and feed sourcing.
Besides geopolitical tensions, disease remains a major risk for exporting countries. For example, the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in Germany has led to several pork import suspensions and a drop in hog prices for the country’s pork producers, even though the disease was detected in water buffaloes.
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