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Pricing 2014 Soybeans: Is It Time To Get Aggressive?

By Edward Usset, University of Minnesota Extension

Soybean plantings will likely increase by two million acres or more in 2014, indicating reason to be nervous about new crop soybean prices in the months ahead.

It's reasonable to assume a large increase in soybean acres this year. That's because November 2014 new crop soybean prices are at a favorable level related to December 2014 futures of new crop corn. The resulting greater supplies could lead to much lower soybean prices by harvest.

Despite this outlook, November 2014 futures prices are currently close to a profitable level compared to production costs.

When the new crop price of soybean is high relative to new crop corn, farmers naturally increase soybean planting. For example, in 2004 and 2006 farmers increased soybean plantings by 1.8 and 3.5 million acres, respectively.

What happens to new crop soybean prices when farmers plant more soybeans?

There have been 14 years since 1980 when November soybean futures led farmers to increase soybean plantings by at least two percent. For perspective, a two percent increase in soybean plantings in 2014 means an additional 1.6 million acres of soybeans -- not a particularly large increase. In 12 of the 14 years, November soybean futures prices were substantially lower at harvest compared to price levels the winter before.

Corn prices are low. Wheat prices are establishing life-of-contract lows nearly every day. I am averse to price 2014 corn or wheat because new crop pricing opportunities are well below production cost. It is possible that early soybean sales will be an only opportunity to price any new crop grain before the harvest of 2014.

With wheat prices in very poor condition, soybean prices are just as favorable compared to wheat. Farmers in the northern Plains, such as North Dakota and South Dakota, have an equally strong incentive to plant more soybeans.

Source : umn.edu


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How a Desire to Lead Brought This Wheat Breeder to Canada

Video: How a Desire to Lead Brought This Wheat Breeder to Canada

Gurcharn Singh Brar is a wheat breeder whose path meandered from the breadbaskets of Punjab, India, to the sprawling fields of the Prairies. In a candid conversation, Brar shared insights into his journey, the challenges faced, and the undying passion that fuels his quest for better crops.

It all began with a childhood rooted in the wheat fields of Punjab, where agriculture isn’t just a livelihood but a way of life. His fascination with wheat and its potential led him to pursue a bachelor’s degree in agricultural sciences at Punjab Agricultural University. It was during this time that he encountered the spectre of rust diseases, particularly stripe rust, which plagued the region’s wheat crops. Determined to combat this menace, he set his sights on a journey that would take him across continents.

Venturing abroad for his graduate studies, he found himself in Saskatchewan at the Crop Development Centre (CDC), working under the mentorship of renowned researchers like Randy Kutcher and Pierre Hucl. Here, he delved deep into the world of wheat genetics, focusing on stripe rust resistance — a quest that would shape his academic pursuits for years to come.

After completing his master’s and Ph.D. in six and a half years, he embarked on a professional journey that would see him traverse academia and research. From brief stints as a research officer to landing his dream faculty position at the University of British Columbia’s Plant Science program, his career trajectory was marked by a strong drive to make a difference in the world of wheat.

Despite the allure of British Columbia’s unique agricultural landscape, he found himself wanting to return to the vast expanses of the Prairies, where wheat reigns supreme. He recently returned to the Prairies and is the new wheat breeder at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

“The opportunity to lead an established wheat breeding program at the University of Alberta was a dream come true. With the necessary resources and infrastructure in place, I’m excited to drive innovation and develop high-yielding wheat varieties tailored to the unique conditions of northern Canada,” he says.

Brar, one of Seed World Canada‘s 2024 Next-Gen Leaders, has become known for identifying novel sources of resistance to priority diseases and his efforts in developing wheat germplasm with multiple disease-resistant traits.

In addition to his groundbreaking research, Brar is committed to mentoring the next generation of agricultural scientists.

“I believe in nurturing talent and empowering students to pursue their passions,” he says. “Watching my students grow and thrive in their research endeavours is hugely rewarding.”

As he looks ahead, Brar’s vision for the future of wheat breeding is clear: “My number one target is to develop high-yielding wheat varieties adapted to the northern climates of Canada. By focusing on early maturity and strong straw traits, we can maximize yield potential while ensuring resilience to environmental challenges.”

His decision to also join the Prairie Recommending Committee for Wheat, Rye, and Triticale (PGDC) executive as member-at-large came from a desire to play an even more important role in the world of Canadian cereals.