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Province Releases 2020 Grasshopper Forecast

Grasshopper levels have been increasing over the past couple of years. Whether populations continue to increase will depend on factors such as weather and natural enemies. Grasshopper levels should be monitored carefully, beginning in late-May or early-June in 2020.
 
Grasshopper populations have more successful development in dry years and generally increase more over a series of dry years. The rainy weather in September and early-October may have somewhat reduced the number of eggs laid, although conditions for egg laying in August were good. The early snowfall in October will not likely significantly decrease overwintering success. Our pest species of grasshoppers all overwinter in the egg stage, which is quite resilient to excess moisture. Populations of bee flies, field crickets, and Epicauta species of blister beetles, all of which feed on grasshopper eggs, were quite noticeable in some locations of Manitoba in 2019.
 
The risk of economical populations of grasshoppers developing in 2020 varies, depending on location. Overall the risk is generally low to moderate in most areas, but there has been a progressive increase in higher counts in the past two surveys. If weather is favourable for grasshopper survival and development there may be areas where grasshoppers are a concern to crops in 2020.
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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.