Weather Market or Not?
There’s no shortage of question marks about 2025 crop production. StatsCan will issue updated acreage numbers on June 27 and the USDA will release its latest acreage estimates on June 30. These reports should provide some direction for the 2025/26 crop outlooks. It will be interesting to see whether all the trade uncertainty caused farmers to shift acreage, including for pulses. But that’s just the beginning of the story.
We’re still just in the first month of the growing season and already, it’s been a roller coaster in many parts of the prairies, in some ways similar to 2024. Prior to seeding in late March, there were a few dry areas on the prairies but overall, conditions seemed positive and there was some early optimism. Move forward to the end of April though and the AAFC Drought Monitor map showed expanding areas of drought, particularly in the northern prairies, where pea acreage is concentrated. By the end of May, the drought situation had spread across most of the prairies, with the most serious shortfalls in northern Saskatchewan and the Peace River region.
The dryness in the northern half of the prairies caused a poor start for the 2025 pea crop in Saskatchewan. According to Sask Ag, the crop rating for peas at the beginning of June was 75% good or excellent. On the surface, that doesn’t sound too bad, but it was worse than the 10-year average of 80% and far below last year’s starting point of 94% good/exc. Fast-forward two weeks and the mid-June ratings worsened, dropping to 64% good/exc versus the 10-year average of 75%. So far, crop ratings aren’t available from Alberta but based on rainfall and soil moisture maps, we expect conditions there to be a bit better than Saskatchewan.
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