Rain Slows Manitoba Harvest Progress

Sep 25, 2025

The Manitoba harvest made just modest progress this past week amid wet conditions, especially in the Northwest Region.

Tuesday’s weekly crop report estimated the provincewide harvest at 56% complete as of Sunday, up only 6 points on the week. Progress is now the most advanced in the Interlake Region, where 72% of the crop was off as of Sunday, up from 59% a week earlier. The harvest in the Central Region advanced 6 points to 69% done, with the Eastern Region gaining 10 points to 67%.

On the other hand, the Southwest harvest progressed just 3 points on the week to 45% complete, while the Northwest advanced 2 points to 44%.

Across the province, 93% of the spring wheat crop was in the bin as of Sunday, along with 89% of the barley, 84% of the oats and 45% on the canola. Soybeans were 3% harvested.

Extensive rainfall was a major factor in the slow progress. The Northwest bore the brunt of the weather, with more than 50 mm falling within an hour at Keld on Sept. 15. Ethelbert saw the highest totals at 109.1 mm, prompting a State of Local Emergency due to flooding and washed-out roads. In the Red River Valley, parts of the Central and Eastern regions also received more than 30 mm of rain. While some areas of the Interlake remain dry, wet conditions were widespread across the Northwest, Southwest, Central, and parts of the East.

Yield reports show generally solid results where crops have been harvested. Spring wheat yields are averaging more than 60 bu/acre, with some regions reporting 70+. Oats are running 110–130+ bu/acre, and barley between 65–110 bu/acre. Corn is mostly in the R5 (dent) stage, while soybeans are approaching harvest readiness, expected within one to two weeks. Field peas are complete, averaging about 60 bu/acre, and dry bean harvest has just begun.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.