Rapid Crop Emergence Offsets Slow Moisture Rebound

Jun 17, 2025

Alberta’s 2025 crop is off to a flying start, with emergence and early development well ahead of schedule across the province — but dwindling moisture reserves are starting to cast a shadow.

According to the latest crop report, emergence for major crops has reached 95%, outpacing both the five-year (84%) and ten-year (86%) averages. Spring wheat and dry peas are nearly fully emerged (100%), while barley (96%), canola (89%), and oats (85%) are all well ahead of seasonal norms.

Crops aren’t just emerging fast — they’re developing faster than usual, too. Spring wheat and barley have already entered mid-tillering stages, when early tillering is more typical for this time of year. Oats are showing late-stage leaf development, again a jump ahead of the five- and ten-year benchmarks.

Dry Conditions Raising Red Flags
Despite the impressive start, soil moisture is not keeping pace, especially in deeper layers now crucial for sustaining the crop’s rapid development. Provincial surface moisture rated good-to-excellent sits at just 20%, far below the five- and ten-year average of 61%. Sub-surface moisture tells a similar story, with a good-to-excellent rating of 26%, compared to the five-year average of 56%.

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Video: From Students to Solutions | On The Brink: Season 2, Episode 14

Ask Canada’s most decorated soybean breeder his favourite part of the job and he doesn’t name a single variety. He names the students.

Istvan Rajcan is a professor of soybean breeding and genetics in the Department of Plant Agriculture at the University of Guelph, where he has run the soybean breeding program for 28 and a half years. In that time he has developed 87 soybean cultivars, published 140 refereed papers and trained 51 graduate students. In 2025 he received the Public Sector Impact Award from the National Association for Plant Breeding.

He is also worried. In this episode he says Canada is at a crossroads, pointing to recent government cuts to plant breeding programs and to the facilities that support them. His prescription is structural. "Plant breeding funding formula has to be a long-term one," he says.

The formula he is defending is the public-private matching arrangement his program runs on. Private seed companies fund the work, provincial or federal money matches it, and the combined pool stretches each dollar further than either source could alone. At the National Association for Plant Breeding annual meeting in June, he says American public breeders were often surprised at how well that collaboration works in Canada.

He also describes how the people entering plant breeding have changed. His early graduate students came mostly from farms. More recently they include, in his words, "city kids who just became excited about genetics."

Topics covered:

Why public-private plant breeding funding in Canada needs a long-term

commitment rather than a larger one

How matching private seed company investment with provincial and federal

dollars multiplies research capacity

How the graduate student pipeline into plant breeding has shifted from

farm kids to city kids