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Soybean Futures Prices Lower on Big Crop Potential

Wednesday's Closing Grain + LIvestock Futures Prices

Sep. corn closed at $3.59 and 1/2, down 3 cents
Sep. soybeans closed at $11.19 and 3/4, down 1/2 cent
Sep. soybean meal closed at $402.60, up $2.80
Sep. soybean oil closed at 32.86, up 20 points
Sep. wheat closed at $5.39 and 1/2, down 6 and 1/2 cents
Aug. live cattle closed at $149.25, down $1.25
Oct. lean hogs closed at $92.50, down $2.32
Sep. crude oil closed at $96.07, up $1.59
Dec. cotton closed at 65.81, up 165 points
Sep. Class III milk closed at $23.14, up 29 cents
Aug. gold closed at $1,293.50, down $1.60
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16,979.13, up 59.54 points

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Ag Market News and Commodity Comments

Soybeans were lower on fund and speculative selling. Crop weather generally looks good and the trade expects a record crop. Exports remain solid with Vietnam buying 110,000 tons of new crop U.S. beans, which did support September for much of the session. Soybean meal was mostly lower with September up and the other months down, while bean oil was up on short covering.

Corn was lower on fund and speculative selling. The trade’s watching rain in parts of the Midwest, with more precipitation in the five day forecast. Fundamentals are bearish, but cheaper prices have led to at least some increase in demand. Ethanol futures were higher. The EIA reports ethanol production for the week ending August 15 averaged 937,000 barrels per day, up 6,000 bpd on the week, with stocks at 18.3 million barrels, a 2.8% increase.

The wheat complex was lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat’s watching rainfall delaying harvest in the Northern Plains and around Europe. Wheat’s also looking at bearish fundamentals, but with a limited downside. Taiwan issued a tender for 99,400 tons of U.S. milling wheat. Russia’s Ag Ministry reports 50% of the current wheat crop is harvested.

The cash cattle market was lightly tested on Wednesday afternoon in the North with live sales at 153.00 and dressed sales at 242.00. That looks about $3.00 lower than last week. For the most part buyers and sellers continue to sit on their hands. Business potential at this point seems clouded by the way futures closed sharply lower. DTN says they assume some showlists are still priced around 157.00 in the South and 245.00 to 248.00 in the North. The kill totaled 113,000 head, 2,000 below last week, and 10,000 smaller than a year ago.

Boxed beef cutout values were lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice boxed beef was down 1.36 at 281.55 and select was .84 lower at 243.07.

Live cattle futures contracts settled 110 to 295 points lower on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. Traders focus was on the limit losses in the feeder cattle market as well as additional weakness in boxed beef values. Some attention was placed on potential demand support surrounding Labor Day weekend needs, but for now, there was very little support driven by that activity. August settled 1.25 lower at 149.25, and October was down 1.82 at 145.40.

Feeder cattle ended the session 220 to 300 points lower. The lack of support in both the live cattle futures market as well as the inability for buyers willing to step in front of this fast moving train kept the markets on the defensive through the close. August settled 2.20 lower at 214.95, and September was down the 3.00 limit at 211.25.

Feeder cattle receipts at the Ozarks Regional Stockyards at West Plains, Missouri totaled 2436 head on Tuesday. Compared to last week, feeder steers traded mixed with weights under 450 pounds steady to 5.00 higher, heavier weights were 4.00 to 12.00 lower. Heifers weighing less than 450 pounds trended 8.00 to 14.00 lower while heavier weight heifers were uneven from 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply. Feeder steers, medium and large 1 averaging 571 pounds averaged 245.36 per hundredweight. 556 pound heifers averaged 233.99.

Lean hogs settled 40 to 232 points in the red as weakness quickly developed through the complex as losses in nearby contracts were comparable to pressure in the cattle complex. The lack of support in both the cash and wholesale pork values as well as widespread outside market pressure opened the door to the losses. October settled 2.32 lower at 92.50, and December was down 2.20 at 86.42.

Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade closed 2.83 lower at 96.68 weighted average on a carcass basis, the West was down 3.17 at 96.36, and there was no price comparison in the East at 98.11. The Missouri direct base carcass meat price was steady to 1.00 lower from 95.00 to 97.00. Midwest market hogs were steady to 2.00 lower live from 65.00 to 80.00.

The pork carcass value FOB plant ended the day 2.41 lower at 107.25.

This week’s hog kill may not be as large as initially thought. If the slaughter on Friday and Saturday are no larger than 355,000 and 27,000 head, respectively, the weekly total could fall short of the 2 million threshold. Such a step back from last week could lend credence to ideas that we have been pulling numbers forward in recent weeks, aggressive marketing that could make late summer and early fall supplies somewhat more manageable.

Wednesday hog slaughter was estimated at 401,000 head, 7,000 less than last week and down 29,000 from last year.

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