Soybean Production In Brazil Lower in 2015-16.

Apr 05, 2015

Brazilian soybean production will fall next season for the first time in nearly a decade, slowing growth to a crawl, US officials said, issuing a downbeat estimate for this year's harvest too.

The South American country's soybean plantings will in 2015-16 drop by 300,000 hectares to 31.1m hectares, due to "the relative low global soybean prices, the economic challenges expected in Brazil, and higher interest rates", the US Department of Agriculture bureau in Brasilia said.

"These factors will put a damper… on aggressive land expansion for soybeans."

The bureau forecast a particular dent to area expansion in the north eastern Mapitoba region, comprising the states of Maranhao, Piaui, Tocatins and Bahia, where relatively low land prices have lured farmers to convert tropical savanna into arable land.

"Converting these areas to row-crop production… is estimated to cost $1,000-1,500 per hectare," the bureau said.

"Increasing costs of production this year will make farmers think twice about clearing new land for this upcoming planting season."

Harvest prospects

The bureau pegged at R$2,584 per hectare the cost to Brazilian farmers of producing soybeans in 2015-16, a 7% rise year on year.

However, with the extra money in part spent on better seed, production will rise despite the first drop in plantings since 2006-07, when sowings totalled 20.7m hectares.

"The continuing adoption for better seed genetics will help Brazil's production reach a new record," the bureau said in a report, estimating Brazil's harvest in 2015-16 at 94.0m tonnes.

On the bureau's estimates, that represents a 1m-tonne rise year on year, although other commentators have a higher estimate for Brazil's current crop, which is some two-thirds the way through being harvested.

The USDA itself sees the crop at 94.5m tonnes, while Agroconsult last week lifted its estimate by 1.1m tonnes to 95.8m tonnes, although Safras e Mercado two weeks ago cut its forecast by 600,000 tonnes to 94.4m tonnes.

The bureau highlighted "erratic weather patterns… throughout the growing season".

Farmers slow soy sales

The bureau was also more downbeat on Brazilian export prospects for 2014-15, on a February-to-January basis, pegging them at 46.0m tonnes, nearly 1.2m tonnes below the USDA's official forecast.

It cited some transport delays from last month's truckers' strike, and a reluctance by farmers to sell crops which represent a dollar-denominated hedge against a weakening real.

"Due to relative low global prices and expectations of a weaker real since October, farmers held the soybean crop longer than usual expecting better domestic prices," the report said.

"As a result, soybeans started reaching the Brazilian ports for exports later than expected."

Record exports ahead

However, "some of these [lost] exports will carry to the next marketing year," the bureau said, estimating Brazil's 2015-16 shipments at a record 48.0m tonnes.

"This forecast is based on strong demand, mainly by China, and the expected weak real through 2015 and 2016.

"The Chinese market is forecast to import record amounts as a result of its urbanisation, rising incomes, and modernisation of the feed and livestock sectors."

Video: How a Desire to Lead Brought This Wheat Breeder to Canada

Gurcharn Singh Brar is a wheat breeder whose path meandered from the breadbaskets of Punjab, India, to the sprawling fields of the Prairies. In a candid conversation, Brar shared insights into his journey, the challenges faced, and the undying passion that fuels his quest for better crops.

It all began with a childhood rooted in the wheat fields of Punjab, where agriculture isn’t just a livelihood but a way of life. His fascination with wheat and its potential led him to pursue a bachelor’s degree in agricultural sciences at Punjab Agricultural University. It was during this time that he encountered the spectre of rust diseases, particularly stripe rust, which plagued the region’s wheat crops. Determined to combat this menace, he set his sights on a journey that would take him across continents.

Venturing abroad for his graduate studies, he found himself in Saskatchewan at the Crop Development Centre (CDC), working under the mentorship of renowned researchers like Randy Kutcher and Pierre Hucl. Here, he delved deep into the world of wheat genetics, focusing on stripe rust resistance — a quest that would shape his academic pursuits for years to come.

After completing his master’s and Ph.D. in six and a half years, he embarked on a professional journey that would see him traverse academia and research. From brief stints as a research officer to landing his dream faculty position at the University of British Columbia’s Plant Science program, his career trajectory was marked by a strong drive to make a difference in the world of wheat.

Despite the allure of British Columbia’s unique agricultural landscape, he found himself wanting to return to the vast expanses of the Prairies, where wheat reigns supreme. He recently returned to the Prairies and is the new wheat breeder at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.

“The opportunity to lead an established wheat breeding program at the University of Alberta was a dream come true. With the necessary resources and infrastructure in place, I’m excited to drive innovation and develop high-yielding wheat varieties tailored to the unique conditions of northern Canada,” he says.

Brar, one of Seed World Canada‘s 2024 Next-Gen Leaders, has become known for identifying novel sources of resistance to priority diseases and his efforts in developing wheat germplasm with multiple disease-resistant traits.

In addition to his groundbreaking research, Brar is committed to mentoring the next generation of agricultural scientists.

“I believe in nurturing talent and empowering students to pursue their passions,” he says. “Watching my students grow and thrive in their research endeavours is hugely rewarding.”

As he looks ahead, Brar’s vision for the future of wheat breeding is clear: “My number one target is to develop high-yielding wheat varieties adapted to the northern climates of Canada. By focusing on early maturity and strong straw traits, we can maximize yield potential while ensuring resilience to environmental challenges.”

His decision to also join the Prairie Recommending Committee for Wheat, Rye, and Triticale (PGDC) executive as member-at-large came from a desire to play an even more important role in the world of Canadian cereals.