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There’s a Beast in the Economy Right Now Named Inflation

2023 might face a difficult outlook, but seeds are in a good place.

There’s a beast that our economy is currently battling. The battle started in 2022, but it doesn’t look like this monster attempting to wreak havoc is ready to leave: inflation.

Inflation is currently at levels we’ve not seen in the United States or around the world in over 40 years, according to Dan Basse, president and economist at AgResource.

“Gone are the days of low-interest rates,” he says in his presentation at the American Seed Trade Association’s CSS & Seed Expo 2022. “Gone are the days we’ll have employees come knocking on our door. Cheap labor around China and in the U.S. has left us — so as we think about this reset, I want you to think about your investments. Think about the world ahead and how this fits into the picture of dollars and where the world sits today.”

Think about what the U.S. — and the globe — have faced within the last few years. In addition to a global health pandemic, supply chains have yet to recover. Drought and heat are becoming more of an issue as temperatures rise. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, causing issues within the global grain trade. Inflation has been a major issue, along with rising interest rates, high gas and diesel prices and threats of protest on the railways.

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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.