U.S. Corn Harvest on Track for Historic Yield

Aug 10, 2023

U.S. corn growers might be witnessing a turning point this year. While early dry spells and summer heatwaves initially cast doubts, timely July rains have significantly bolstered the corn crops during their vital development stages.

This surge in production, however, could pose a double-edged sword. While it augments the domestic corn cache, it might dent the U.S. corn exports due to Brazil's impressive harvest, possibly making it the global corn leader.

The robust yield prospects led to a noticeable dip in corn market values, down by 18% in July from a late-June zenith. But it wasn't all bleak. Thanks to genetically modified corn, which constitutes over 90% of U.S. production, the crops showed resilience against drought.

A western Illinois Farmer notes, "The cutting-edge seed technology was a game-changer. The corn yield might turn out quite commendable."

That said, analysts anticipate a slight trimming in the government's corn production forecast to 15.135 billion bushels, down from an earlier estimation of 15.320 billion. If this comes to fruition, it will be the second-highest yield, closely following the 2016 harvest.

July saw the U.S. Agriculture Department bumping up their good-to-excellent corn ratings by 4%, marking a vital phase for corn's pollination and yield potential.

But challenges lurk. While modern farming techniques have countered some adversities, the early-season drought will still weigh on the final yield figures. An Illinois-based farmer captures the sentiment, stating, "This season's been full of ups and downs. It's high time Mother Nature settled!"

Source : wisconsinagconnection

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.