I may be wrong, but I am consistent. That line was given to me by a whistle-happy referee during an intramural basketball game in college who thought my wrestling-derived form of defense was a bit too aggressive. The same less-than-flattering assessment could be said of the USDA who is seemingly and equal opportunity offender to both the livestock industry as well as the agronomic interests.
Readers of this column do not need a reminder of the magnitude of the miss on the September Hogs and Pigs report last year. It was wildly misinforming and cost our industry millions of dollars with the projection of significantly more market-ready animals than what the eventual numbers revealed. Any hedges placed on faith in the USDA report’s accuracy were under water to the detriment of the pork producer.
The crop guys now have a similar situation with the release of the January WASDE. The USDA report out Friday, Jan. 10 was not of the mundane check-the-box variety. Similar to the treatment of the pork producer with the whiff in the September Hogs and Pigs report which led to prices that were lower than they “should have been” for longer than they should have been, the USDA (surprise!) has indicated that the crop was not as big as we thought in November. Or September. Or August. This flip is egregious. Period.
In fact, the November report that pushed out a 180++ yield number was against a backdrop of 91% of the crop harvested at the time of the report, a solid 15% more than normal. How did they miss so much? The Chief of the USDA offered no explanation aside from, “That is what the data said." That dude has a career in politics. Wait, he already works for the government. This is inexcusable.
Spec buying in corn on the heels of the report was huge with 73,000 contracts coming across the screen (I almost wrote pit) while farmer selling met the opportunity. This rally occurs in plenty of time for the U.S. farmer to adjust planting intentions and for the insurance provisions – first calculation in February – to provide an economic stimulus for more corn. The biggest gift recipient: the Brazilian farmer who is just commencing on harvest. Combines are rolling in Mato Grosso and the planters will be chasing the combines to ensure the Safrinha corn crop has the acres needed to keep the balance sheet comfortable.
Brazilian exports of pork are higher per our recent conversation with Brett Stuart. In 2018, exports were 20% of Brazilian production at 600 million tons. In 2024, exports are 32% of production at 1.2 billion tons. Sound familiar? This is the same phenomena that we have seen in soy production. In 2018, the U.S. and the Brazilian soy production was a virtual tie. In 2024, Brazil produced 50% more beans than the U.S.
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