According to a western Canadian market analyst, most of that forecast checks out.
The report, published by the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service office in Ottawa in late September, predicted the Canadian cow herd and calf crop will continue to shrink next year. The FAS suggested beef cow numbers will fall by almost 3.7 per cent, to 3.43 million head from 3.56 million, while calf stocks are expected to see a smaller drop, to 4.2 million from 4.25 million.
“Improved feed conditions in 2022-23 following the 2021 drought did not encourage any meaningful expansion or significant heifer retention amongst cow-calf producers,” the report read.
“The 2023 beef cow herd was the smallest in recent years, and drought conditions in certain regions on the southern prairies led to increased cow slaughter and a lack of signals for heifer retention.”
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