WASDE: U.S. Rice Supplies Raised Slightly From Last Month

Aug 10, 2018

RICE: Total U.S. rice supplies for 2018/19 are raised slightly from last month due to increased beginning stocks that were mostly offset by a smaller crop. Beginning stocks are raised 2.5 million cwt on a 3.5-million export reduction for the 2017/18 crop year that is partially offset by increased domestic and residual use. U.S. rice production is lowered 2.1 million cwt to 210.9 million on the first survey-based yield forecast of the 2018/19 season. Long-grain production is lowered 2.8 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain is raised 0.7 million cwt. The all rice yield forecast is lowered 76 pounds per acre from the previous forecast to 7,523. Exports for the 2018/19 crop year are lowered 4 million cwt to 98 million on a lack of price competitiveness relative to both Asian and South American exporters. Ending stocks are raised 1.4 million cwt to 43.6 million and the 2018/19 all rice season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per cwt at the midpoint to a range of $11.40 to $12.40. Global supplies for 2018/19 are lowered fractionally on reduced production for Madagascar and Iraq. World trade is raised slightly, led by higher Pakistan exports and Iraq imports. Global exports remain record large. Global consumption and ending stocks are each lowered fractionally.

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.