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WASDE: U.S. The Total Meat Production Raised From Last Month

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for total meat production in 2018 is raised from last month as increases in broiler production more than offset declines in beef, pork, and turkey production. Second-quarter broiler production is raised on June production data, while third-quarter production is raised on hatchery data and expected growth in bird weights. The decline in beef production largely reflects a slower pace of marketings in the third quarter. Cow slaughter is raised, but recent carcass weight data and a larger proportion of cows in the slaughter mix led to a reduction in expected carcass weights during the second half of the year. Pork production is reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter during the last half of the year. Forecast turkey production is reduced slightly from the previous month on June production data. Egg production is increased on second-quarter production data. For 2019, the pork production forecast is raised from the previous month on higher expected hog slaughter in the first part of the year and heavier carcass weights. The beef production forecast is raised on heavier carcass weights in 2019. Broiler production is also raised for 2019 on lower forecast feed prices. Annual turkey and egg production forecasts for 2019 are unchanged from the previous month.
For 2018, second-quarter beef imports are reduced on June trade data; the forecasts for the outlying quarters and into 2019 are unchanged. Beef export forecasts are raised for both 2018 and 2019 on expectations of continued strong global demand. Second-quarter pork imports for 2018 are lowered slightly on recent trade data, but the forecasts for the outlying quarters and into 2019 are unchanged. The second-quarter pork export forecast is adjusted for June data; the forecast for the remainder of 2018 and into 2019 is reduced slightly on expected competition in several markets. Broiler and turkey export forecasts are reduced for both 2018 and 2019 on weaker-than-expected demand.
 
Cattle and turkey price forecasts are unchanged at the midpoint for 2018 and 2019. Hog and broiler price forecasts are lowered for 2018 and 2019. The egg price forecast for 2018 is raised on recent price strength; no changes are made to the 2019 egg price forecasts. The milk production forecast for 2018 is unchanged from last month. The milk production forecast for 2019 is raised from the previous month on slightly higher cow numbers and increased milk per cow. For 2018, fat basis exports are raised from the previous month on higher sales of butter and other fat-containing products. The fat basis import forecast is also raised on higher expected imports of butterfat products. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2018 is lowered on weaker sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and the imposition of tariffs by
China on lactose and other dairy products. The import forecast is unchanged. For 2019, the fat basis import and export forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. Skim-solids basis exports are lowered on expected continued weak sales of lactose. The skim-solids import forecast for 2019 is reduced from the previous month on lower expected imports of milk protein concentrates.
 
For 2018, cheese, butter, NDM and whey price forecasts are raised for 2018. Prices for cheese, NDM and whey are also raised for 2019 as demand strength is expected to carry into next year. However, the 2019 butter price forecast remains unchanged from the previous month. The 2018 Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from the previous month to reflect the higher dairy product price forecasts. For 2019, Class III price forecast is raised on higher forecast cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price forecast is raised on the stronger forecast NDM price. The all milk price is raised to $16.10 to $16.30 per cwt for 2018, and is raised to $16.45 to $17.45 per cwt for 2019.