Two poll trackers point to a Liberal victory
It’s election day in Canada, and people across the country are heading to polling stations to cast their ballots to determine the next government.
With that at top mind, let’s look at what three Canadian poll trackers are predicting for tonight’s results.
Both The Writ and 338Canada are projecting the Liberals will form government.
These sites use opinion polls, electoral history and other data points to come up with their projections.
“The Poll Tracker awards the (Liberal) party an 89% chance of winning the most seats and a 70% chance of securing a majority government,” Éric Grenier wrote on The Writ’s website on April 28.
338Canada, created by Philippe J. Fournier, also points to a Liberal government. His data as of election day shows the party could win more than 180 seats.
A party needs 172 to form a majority.
In terms of candidates connected to agriculture, here are 338Canada’s projections for the individuals who participated in the Canadian Federation of Agriculture’s ag leaders debate.
Kody Blois, the minister of agriculture at the time of the election call, is expected to retain his Nova Scotia seat in Kings-Hants.
338Canada deems the riding as safe for the Liberals.
John Barlow, the Conservative ag critic, is projected to keep his Alberta seat in Foothills.
338Canada has this riding marked safe for the Conservatives.
Heather Ray, who represented the NDP in the ag leaders debate, is not expected to win in the Peterborough riding.
Fournier’s data indicates this riding is a toss up between the Liberals and Conservatives.
Yves Perron, the MP for Berthier—Maskinongé is expected to keep his seat with 338Canada identifying the riding as a likely win for the Bloc Quebecois.
And Dr. Maria Rodriguez, running for the Green Party in the P.E.I. riding of Cardigan, is not expected to win that seat.
338Canada predicts the Liberals will likely hold onto this riding, which former ag minister Lawrence MacAulay held from 1988 to his retirement announcement in March 2025.
Individual riding results on The Writ are paywall protected.
Yahoo News Canada also ran its own poll.
Poll questions appeared in stories across Yahoo Canada’s network.
They weren’t targeted towards a particular demographic and allowed users to vote twice.
The polls “do not follow scientific polling method and are only meant to gauge public opinion,” a note says.
When asked who should be Canada’s next prime minister, 70 percent of respondents chose Pierre Poilievre compared to 27 percent for Mark Carney and 1 percent for Jagmeet Singh.
The poll has received more than 117,000 votes.