Will yields recover? Concerns are being raised about market impacts and future crop conditions
On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast, Farms.com Risk Management Chief Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal reviewed market trends and hot issues for the week of July 21 to 25, 2025.
The major concern this week is a widespread corn pollination problem across 13 US states and parts of Ontario, Canada. Agostino described it as a rare “tight tassel wrap” issue—also referred to as rapid growth syndrome—where the corn tassel fails to emerge properly, reducing pollination and resulting in lost yields. This problem appears hybrid-specific and may worsen with continued spread into new regions.
Another growing issue is tar spot and southern rust, diseases that affect corn leaves and decrease photosynthesis. Southern rust has been confirmed in 15 US states and is creeping into Iowa, while tar spot has already been spotted in Ontario, as far north as Belleville.
While not an agronomist, Agostino strongly recommends fungicide applications, despite low corn prices, to protect yields and reduce nighttime heat stress.
High nighttime temperatures are also raising alarms, with temperatures in major corn states exceeding the optimal range. This may reduce grain fill and increase plant stress, but cooler weather in early August could provide relief.
Grain markets reacted with cattle futures reaching new highs and milk futures hitting new lows after a bearish USDA report. Corn futures may have found a floor at $4.07, and wheat futures remain under pressure despite lowered yield estimates from the North Dakota wheat tour.
US trade news included the US-Japan agreement, and a wheat export deal with Bangladesh, although neither is seen as a game-changer. On the weekend, after the podcast a US-European Union trade deal was announced that was very similarhad similarities to the US-Japan deal.
Meanwhile, Canada’s canola stocks are tightening, potentially lifting prices past resistance levels.
The podcast closed with a reminder from Agostino: “Your ability to think clearly is your most valuable asset.”
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