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Surprising Jump In Soybean Production in Brazil Projected.

Surprising Jump In Soybean Production In Brazil Projected by Conab.

By Joe Dales,

The official Brazilian commodities bureau, Conab provided the soybean market a surprise when it released the third forecast for the 2015 crop.

2015 soybean production in Brazil is projected to be a record 95.8 million tons which is higher due to increased planted acres and regular rainfall in the major regions after an early-season drought. This estimated production represents an 11 percent increase compared to 2014 amount of 86.1 million tons. The agency had previously estimated a soybean crop as large as 91.7 million tons in the November.

Farmers in Brazil continue to increase planted acres by as much as 4.9 percent this year and are switching acres from corn production due to the current prices which show soybeans to be more profitable. The soybean planted acres are projected to be 31.7 million hectares, up from the 31.3 million hectares forecast in the Confab November report.   

In southern Brazil, the weather conditions have been "favourable for crops",  and the forecast is for the potential of "stable volumes of rainfall, essential for good plant growth, especially for the cultivation of soybeans in the highlands" Conab said.

The last Conab report was released hours before the US Department of Agriculture, whose estimates set world projections and forecasted 94m tonnes for soybean production in Brazil – although many forecasters had expected a lower Brazil soybean forecast because of the delays to plantings and early drought conditions.

Soybean yields are estimated to be 3,026 kilograms (6,671 pounds) per hectare, a 6 percent increase from last season and the highest since 2010-2011, according to data on Conab’s website. That compares to a November estimate of 2,894 kilograms a hectare.

The planted acreages in Brazil’s new agricultural regions such as Para and Tocantins states was larger than expected. The Brazilian soybean planting was 92 percent complete as of Dec. 5 and should be finished by next week.

“This is bearish supply news and has put pressure forcing lower soybean futures prices,” says Mark Lahti, Research analyst with Risk Management, “the market will be watching the weather in South America closely to see if the crop can achieve those high yield projections.”

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