Agriculture Canada has raised its 2025-26 canola price projection, even as the supply-demand outlook remains unchanged.
In its latest monthly supply-demand update on Thursday, Ag Canada pegged the average new-crop canola price at $670/tonne (No.1 Track Vancouver). That is up a hefty $60 from last month’s estimate and $15 above the forecast for 2024-25, which was raised $10 from last month.
The government provided no explanation for the upwardly revised price forecast, with canola ending stocks for both 2024-25 and 2025-26 holding steady from March at 1.3 million and 2 million tonnes, respectively. All other canola supply-demand estimates were unchanged from last month as well.
Canola futures were battered immediately after China announced 100% tariffs on imports of Canadian canola oil and meal last month, but the market has since recovered all those losses and moved higher since, as export and domestic crush demand remains strong. In fact, the market’s focus now appears to be returning to the tight old-crop supply situation, with stocks for 2024-25 estimated at a 12-year low.
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