By James Mitchell
A lot has been said about beef prices in 2026, and there has been a lot of productive discussion about what is driving them. Some point to historically tight cattle supplies. U.S. cattle inventories are at their lowest since the 1950s, and federally inspected cattle slaughter through May is 1.12 million head below the same period in 2025 and 2.56 million head below 2022, the cyclical peak for the current cattle cycle. Others argue that exceptionally strong consumer demand is the primary reason why beef prices have reached record highs. Both explanations are correct, and the market is more nuanced than either explanation by itself.
Total beef disappearance has declined much less than cattle slaughter would suggest. According to the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) balance sheet, total beef disappearance in 2026 is forecast to be 2.6% below 2025 but still 0.2% above 2022. This reflects two important factors impacting total beef supplies. First, heavier dressed weights have partially offset lower slaughter numbers by producing more beef per animal. Second, larger beef imports have kept total U.S. beef supplies from plummeting.
Figure 1 above helps illustrate why this is important. While total per capita beef consumption has remained relatively stable over the last several years, ground beef has become an increasingly larger share of consumption. Ground beef accounted for 47% of per capita beef consumption in 2022 and is expected to account for 50% in 2026.
Source : osu.edu