Soybean futures started this week with strong gains that eventually fizzled, as the market displayed classic “buy the rumour, sell the action” behaviour.
Traders initially pushed prices higher on optimism surrounding Chinese buying (and a strong October NOPA crush report), with the nearby January contract touching a 17-month high on Tuesday at just under $11.70/bu (see chart below).
But even as Chinese buying was confirmed as the week went on, doubts about whether Beijing would reach its expected 12 million tonnes in American soybean purchases by the end of this year helped to erase much of the early-week enthusiasm. Soybean futures were on track to settle little changed on Friday, with the January contract around $11.25.
According to reports, China booked more than 1.1 million tonnes of US soybeans this week with the total since the end of October now at 1.8 million.
Fundamentally, the USDA’s Nov. 14 supply-demand update did trim the 2025 average US soybean yield and production estimates from September. But projected 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks remain generally adequate at 290 million bu, with exports pegged at 1.635 billion bu, the lowest since 2012-13.
An expected larger 2025-26 Brazilian soybean crop of nearly 178 million tonnes continues to overhang the soybean market as well.
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