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Crop Progress: Dry Bean Planting on Track to End Early

For the week ending June 16, 2024, there were 5.6 days suitable for fieldwork, according to the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 1% very short, 18% short, 71% adequate and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies rated 2% very short, 22% short, 69% adequate and 7% surplus.

Field Crops Report:

Corn condition rated 1% very poor, 3% poor, 15% fair, 53% good and 28% excellent. Corn emerged was 98%, near 97% last year and 96% for the five-year average. 

Soybean condition rated 0% very poor, 3% poor, 18% fair, 56% good and 23% excellent. Soybeans emerged was 90%, behind 95% last year but near 89% average. Blooming was 1%, near 2% average. 

Winter wheat condition rated 0% very poor, 3% poor, 25% fair, 40% good, and 32% excellent. Winter wheat headed was 97%, ahead of 92% last year and 90% average. 

Sorghum condition rated 0% very poor, 0% poor, 17% fair, 72% good and 11% excellent. Sorghum planted was 92%, near 91% both last year and average. Headed was 1%, equal to average. 

Oats condition rated 0% very poor, 3% poor, 26% fair, 55% good and 16% excellent. Oats headed was 70%, ahead of 57% last year and 62% average. 

Dry edible beans planted was 94%, well ahead of 70% last year. Emerged was 49%, ahead of 41% last year. 

Pasture and Range Report:

Pasture and range conditions rated 2% very poor, 8% poor, 27% fair, 54% good and 9% excellent.

Source : unl.edu

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
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Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.