Table egg production is expected to total 6.6 billion dozen in 2013, down fractionally from 2012. While 2013 is expected to have higher prices for many meat products and improving general economic conditions, egg producers are expected to face lower prices for the remainder of 2012. While the rate of lay is expected to very gradually increase, the decrease in production is expected to come from a cut in the size of the laying flock. Hatching egg production is expected to total almost 1.1 billion dozen in 2013, a marginal increase after a decline in 2011 and 2012. The expansion in hatching egg production is based on the forecast for higher broiler production starting at the end of 2012 and carrying through 2013.
Egg Production Higher in First-Quarter 2012
Egg production totaled 1.91 billion dozen in first-quarter 2012, up slightly (1 percent) from the previous year. The increase was due to greater production of table eggs at 1.65 billion dozen, up 1.7 percent from the previous year. Production of hatching eggs totaled 258 million dozen, down 3 percent as the production of broiler-type eggs continue down significantly from a year earlier. The average number of birds in the table egg flock during first-quarter 2012 was slightly higher (up 0.7 percent) than in 2011 at 285 million birds. Table egg production for the rest of 2012 is expected to continue to be slightly higher than the previous year during the second and third quarters and about even with the previous year in the fourth quarter. Production of hatching eggs is expected to have the opposite pattern with lower production through the first three quarters of 2012 and higher production in the fourth quarter as broiler processors react to the incentives of a generally better economy, higher prices, and slightly lower grain prices.
Egg Prices Higher in 2013
Better overall economic conditions in 2013 are expected to generate greater domestic demand for shell eggs and egg products, especially from the food service sector. However, higher production is expected to offset the demand and leave overall wholesale egg prices in 2013 at $1.00-$1.08 per dozen, only slightly higher than in 2012. During first-quarter 2012, the wholesale price in the New York market averaged $1.09 per dozen for Grade A large eggs. This is up almost 3 percent from a year earlier, in part due to the high prices at the beginning of the year carried over from strong fourth-quarter 2011 prices of $1.31 per dozen. Shell egg prices have fallen seasonally since the Easter holiday and second quarter prices in the New York market are expected to be average $0.91-$0.93 per dozen, down 14 percent from the previous year.
Egg Exports up to 266 Million Dozen in 2013
Exports of shell eggs and egg products are expected to expand to the equivalent of 266 million dozen in 2013, slightly higher than the forecast for 2012. Higher shipments in 2013 are expected to be generated primarily by stronger demand from a number of Asian countries, including Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. Egg exports in 2012 are expected to contract, with smaller shipments to Mexico and Canada. One factor that could affect the impact the 2012 forecast is high demands for breaking eggs and egg products from EU countries facing lower production. In the first quarter of 2012, egg and egg product exports totaled 63 million dozen, down 6 percent from the previous year. Much of the export decrease occurred in March, when shipments were down 13 percent from the previous year. The March decline is chiefly the result of sharp drops in shipments to both Korea and the United Arab Emirates. Shipments to Korea during first-quarter 2012 were only 1.1 million dozen, down 88 percent from the same period in 2011.