Monday's Closing Grain and Livestock Futures
May corn closed at $4.90, up 11 cents
May soybeans closed at $14.25 and 1/2, up 16 and 3/4 cents
May soybean meal closed at $462.00, up $6.10
May soybean oil closed at 40.84, down 18 points
May wheat closed at $7.14 and 1/2, up 21 and 1/4 cents
Apr. live cattle closed at $144.15, up 15 cents
Apr. lean hogs closed at $124.65, down $1.02
May crude oil closed at $99.60, up 14 cents
May cotton closed at 90.63, down 268 points
Apr. Class III milk closed at $24.09, up 56 cents
Apr. gold closed at $1,311.20, down $24.80
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16,276.69, down 26.08 points
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Market News Update:
Soybeans were higher on fund and commercial buying. Fundamentally, old crop supplies remain tight and demand continues to look strong. Weekly export inspections were strong, coming in much larger than what’s needed weekly to meet USDA projections. Still, South America’s harvest is going well and there are continued concerns about Chinese demand. Soybean meal was higher, following beans, and oil was mixed in consolidation trade.
Corn was higher on fund and technical buying. Corn’s keeping an eye on Ukraine and the potential for increased exports due to tensions in the region. Past that – the trade’s getting ready for the USDA numbers out next Monday. The supply is large, but demand has been solid, with strong domestic demand and another good week for export inspections. Ethanol futures were higher.
The wheat complex was sharply higher on fund and commercial buying. Wheat’s also watching the political situation in Ukraine very closely, adding back some risk premium. Additionally, the trade’s keeping an eye U.S. winter crops as they come out dormancy, especially around the Southern Plains, with dry conditions expected over the near term. Russia’s Ag Ministry reports grain exports since July 1, 2013 are 19.786 million tons, 40.8% more than last marketing year, with wheat accounting for 14.584 million tons of the total.
Cattle country was typically quiet on Monday afternoon following the distribution of the new showlists. The late month offering appears to be generally larger with only Colorado showing fewer steers and heifers. The biggest increase is in Texas with Kansas and Nebraska only marginally larger. Some asking prices are around 152.00 plus in the South and 245.00 plus in the North. The kill totaled 115,000 head, 1,000 below last week, but 9,000, more than a week ago.
Boxed beef cutout values were higher on moderate demand and light offerings. Choice beef was up .96 at 241.12, and select was up 2.27 at 235.93.
Live cattle contracts settled 15 to 100 points higher on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Monday. The market was supported by ideas that firm beef support will continue to be seen. But the early gains ended near midday with the nearby futures holding narrowly positive moves with additional support hard to find for the remainder of the session. It appeared the nearby contracts were trying to establish a range, but with the current discount to cash markets, a breakout market shift is possible. April settled .15 higher at 144.15, and June was up .30 at 136.42.
Feeder cattle ended the day 106 to 167 points higher. Moderate to strong buyer support redeveloped in feeder cattle futures despite the larger than expected placements in Friday’s cattle on feed report. It appears that traders looked at the higher placement numbers with the expectation future placements will be reduced. March was up 1.67 at 176.70, and April was 1.02 higher at 176.30.
Feeder cattle receipts at the Joplin, Missouri Regional Stockyards totaled 7500 head. Compared to last week, steer calves sold steady, heifer calves were steady to 3.00 higher. Yearlings brought steady money. Demand was good and supply is moderate to heavy. Feeder steers medium and large 1 weighing 500 to 600 pounds traded from 207.00 to 224.00. 5 to 6 weight heifers brought 178.00 to 196.00.
Lean hogs settled 97 higher to 212 lower as active pressure quickly developed through the lean hog futures with traders pointing to triple digit losses through the morning. It was uncertain if this was the start of active liquidation or if traders were just trying to square positions at the beginning of the week. Technically the market could see a sustained aggressive price drop before any signals are seen. But there remains so many unknowns about current and future production potential that most traders remain cautious. April settled 1.l02 lower at 124.65, and June was down 2.12 at 128.20.
Barrows and gilts in the Iowa/Minnesota direct trade were .10 lower at 127.88 weighted average carcass basis, live hogs were 1.72 lower from 86.50 to 98.00. Western direct trade barrows and gilts were down .18 at 127.74. Eastern hogs were not reported due to confidentiality. Missouri direct base carcass meat price was 2.00 to 9.00higher from 117.00 to 120.00. Terminal hogs were steady to 3.00 with an instance in Iowa of 4.00 to 6.00 higher from 80.00 to 88.00 with an extreme top of 105.00 reported.
The pork carcass cutout value was up .14 at 131.64 FOB plant.
Given the price explosion seen over the last 30 days, it would not be surprising to see substantial long liquidation surface this week in lean hog futures as traders’ position before the release of the March H&P report scheduled for Friday afternoon.
Monday’s hog slaughter was estimated at 415,000 head, 26,000 more than last week, but 3,000 less than last year.
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