By John Robinson
Longer run price outcomes for the 2026 crop will be influenced by expectations of supply and demand. A major supply-related question is how much 2026 acreage will be planted to cotton. The price of competing crops, relative to cotton prices, is an important consideration to the level of planted cotton acreage. Figure 1 shows a fairly strong relationship between the level of U.S. upland and pima cotton planted (as measured on June 30) and the ratio of December CBOT corn futures and ICE cotton futures during the first quarter of the year. The higher the ratio, the less cotton is planted.
Of course, there are other important competing crops as well, e.g., sorghum, soybeans, and peanuts. There are non-price influences, including how dry it is in Texas, the insurance base price, fixed cost influences, and the psychological influence of the preceding growing season. But the price ratio of corn to cotton appears to capture a lot of these other influences in explaining variations in cotton plantings.
What does Figure 1 imply for 2026? As of early August, the Dec’26 CBOT corn/Dec’26 ICE cotton price ratio is roughly 6.5 (i.e., $4.50 corn divided by 69-cent cotton). Assuming this ratio prevails during Q1 of 2026, it is historically associated with between 10.0 and 10.5 million acres of all cotton.
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