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Rest of June Warmer than Normal with High Rainfall Variability

By Jim Noel
 
Weather Map
 
Not much has change since last week in terms of the outlook. The rest of June is likely to be warmer than normal with high variability of rainfall but tendency to above normal rainfall.
 
It appears a heat dome will be centered in the south central U.S. this summer with periods where it shifts over the corn and soybean belt and Ohio Valley. The next surge of heat will come this weekend into early next week. With these surges come a ring of fire of storms around the heat dome leading to locally heavy rainfall. However, that rain will be scattered in nature.
 
It also appears tropical moisture form the Gulf of Mexico later this week will combine with a tropical system from the eastern Pacific Ocean and come around the heat dome by next week into the Ohio Valley enhancing rainfall at that time.
 
The outlook for July is for the above normal temperatures to remain but with a drier rainfall picture at that time.
 
Rainfall for the next two weeks will average 1-4 inches with normal being near 2 inches. Isolated totals of greater than 4+ and less than an inch can be expected. See attached image from NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center for more information on rainfall distribution across the entire corn and soybean belt.