Seasonal Demand, Disease Pressure and Supply Leads to Dynamic World Pork Market

Analysis of the recent pork markets across the U.S., Asia and the European Union markets show they are highly dynamic and impacted by diseases, seasonal demand and production, according to the third-quarter report on pork prices and forecast from Expana. In addition, tariffs, changing policies, and supply and demand contribute to the results.

U.S.
The U.S. ranks third in the world for pork production and consumption and is a net exporter of pork. Disease pressure from Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) has created supply-side concerns, and tariffs with China have slowed the typically robust export market.

While there is consistent year-round pork production in the U.S., demand gained momentum with the summer grilling season. Weekly USDA data showed year-to-date federally inspected pork production through the second week of June was 0.1% below year-ago levels, while year-to-date hog slaughter was down about 0.5% compared to the same period in 2024.

Average federally inspected carcass weights (215 lb.) and live hog weights (289 lb.) were each about a pound heavier than year-ago levels, based on data through the second week of June.

Key U.S. takeaways include:

• Total U.S. hog and pig inventory as of March 1 stood at 74.5 million head, slightly below year-ago levels, 1% lower.
• Farrowing intentions for March through May were reported at 2.91 million head, down 1%, suggesting a modest tightening in near-term supply heading into late summer.
• USDA cold storage data supports a view of a tighter market.
• Total pork inventories at the end of April were reported at 455.8 million lbs., up 11.3% from March but still 8.7% below year-ago levels. Hams led the monthly increase. Bellies rose 9.3%.
• Bone-in loins declined 11%, while boneless loins increased 4.6%, resulting in a slight net decrease. Butts declined 0.7% and are now at a 52-week low.
• Overall prices are expected to continue to rise in the second half of the second quarter around U.S. cents (USc) 1.7-1.8, with Expana suggesting prices will decrease in the third quarter of 2025.