WHEAT: The 2018/19 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,821 million bushels, up 5 percent from the prior year. The year-over-year increase is due to greater harvested area and slightly higher yield. Reduced beginning stocks and imports bring total supplies down 49 million bushels from the previous year. The all wheat yield is projected at 46.8 bushels per acre, up slightly from 2017/18. Winter wheat yields are below average in the drought affected states of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Combined spring wheat and Durum production for 2018/19 is projected to increase 34 percent from the previous year’s low, which is due to both increased area and yield.
Total 2018/19 use is projected up 3 percent on higher food, feed and residual, and exports. Food use is projected at a record 965 million bushels, up 2.0 million bushels from the previous year’s revised estimate. U.S. feed and residual use is projected at 120 million bushels, up 50 million bushels from last year’s low level but still below the 5-year-average. Exports are projected at 925 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from the revised 2017/18 total. Ending stocks for 2018/19 are projected down 115 million bushels to 955 million, which if realized would be a 4-year-low. The season-average farm price is projected at a range of $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel. The midpoint of this range is up $0.30 per bushel from the previous year and the highest since 2014/15.
Global wheat supplies for 2018/19 are projected to increase fractionally as higher beginning stocks are partially offset by a production decline following last year’s record. Global wheat production is projected at 747.8 million tons, down 10.6 million from the previous year’s record. Most of the year-over-year production decline stems from a 13.0-million-ton reduction for Russia. Global wheat consumption is projected at a record 753.9 million tons, up 10.1 million from 2017/18. Global imports are expected to increase 3.5 million tons in 2018/19 for the sixth consecutive record. With total use rising faster than supplies, global ending stocks are projected to decline 6.1 million tons to 264.3 million.