Wheat Market Outlook - March 30, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat

• Wheat markets will begin to see more reports on the Northern Hemisphere crops as their growing season begins. Expect more consistent weather updates as the crop conditions reports will begin to be released from major wheat production / exporting nations: Russia, Ukraine, European Union, Canada and the United States. Markets will be watching precipitation forecasts more going forward for the growing regions of Northern Hemisphere crops. As of right now, dryness in the United States is the most watched on the radar. Most of Euro region and into the Black Sea are faring alright with some issues but nothing to raise major attention of markets. Canadian wheat remains competitive for export into global markets but much of the business was done earlier and export pace relative to last year has been slipping. We are around 6 per cent ahead of last years export pace vs 15 per cent earlier on in the crop marketing year. Canola and other crops are taking up more export volume and capacity in recent weeks at the expense of wheat as exporters move more of the other crops through the system. IGC’s latest estimates show a potential tightening of global supplies as consumption is anticipated to remain good for the upcoming season and crop yields are expected to return to normal levels after posting many record yields this past year. Producers could be moving some grain at crop marketing year highs with the recent uptick in values and should be cognisant of when they need to move their old crop wheat to the market.

Market Outlook - Durum

• Price outlook overall for durum appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Morocco, Tunisia and Algerian durum crops are anticipated to be in good shape with higher output once it becomes harvest time could lower import demand needs thereafter if realised. Watching this market closely as they are still in the growing season and important to be watching the agroclimatic from here on out but as of right now, things look quite favorable in the North African region. Markets are focused on how Canadian crop prospects will look once time to put that crop into the ground. Canada being the worlds largest exporter and always does have a major influence on the market. Dryness in southern production regions of Saskatchewan will be the region markets are watching as we enter later April and into May.