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World pig farming: Update on USDA estimates for 2023 and 2024

In its latest report "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" on January 12, USDA recalculated the closing figures for 2023 and its estimates for 2024, forecasting a decrease in world pork production this year, due to lower productions in China, the European Union, and Brazil.

General context

  • World pork production for 2024 is estimated 1% below the October forecast due to lower production expected in China, the European Union, and Brazil.
  • China's production is expected to decline, given the continued weak demand that discourages the expansion of domestic production.
  • Continued regulation and changes in consumer preferences were the factors behind the downward projections for the European Union.
  • Brazil's production is estimated to be lower than projected in October, as imports from China, its main market, continue to weaken.
  • U.S. production is virtually unchanged, as the decrease in farrowings has been offset by an increase in pigs per litter.
  • World pork exports for 2024 were lowered by 2% from the October forecast, as the European Union, the United States, and Brazil increasingly compete for China's lowering imports.
  • Although U.S. exports remain strong to many major markets, including Mexico and Canada, total exports are projected to decline given weak import demand from Japan and China.
  • Exports from the United Kingdom are also expected to decline due to decreasing demand from the European Union.
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