World pig farming: Update on USDA estimates for 2023 and 2024

Jan 22, 2024

In its latest report "Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade" on January 12, USDA recalculated the closing figures for 2023 and its estimates for 2024, forecasting a decrease in world pork production this year, due to lower productions in China, the European Union, and Brazil.

General context

World pork production for 2024 is estimated 1% below the October forecast due to lower production expected in China, the European Union, and Brazil.

China's production is expected to decline, given the continued weak demand that discourages the expansion of domestic production.

Continued regulation and changes in consumer preferences were the factors behind the downward projections for the European Union.

Brazil's production is estimated to be lower than projected in October, as imports from China, its main market, continue to weaken.

U.S. production is virtually unchanged, as the decrease in farrowings has been offset by an increase in pigs per litter.

World pork exports for 2024 were lowered by 2% from the October forecast, as the European Union, the United States, and Brazil increasingly compete for China's lowering imports.

Although U.S. exports remain strong to many major markets, including Mexico and Canada, total exports are projected to decline given weak import demand from Japan and China.

Exports from the United Kingdom are also expected to decline due to decreasing demand from the European Union.

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