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14,500 Agriculture Jobs Lost in California

The High Costs of a Lingering Drought

By Jean-Paul McDonald, Farms.com

California’s agriculture sector continues to suffer from a severe drought that has plagued the state for nearly four years in a row. While the occasional rain does fall, it hasn’t been enough to help alleviate the devastating effects of the drought. A preliminary study released this week by University of California, Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences, highlights the ripple effects the drought is having on the state’s workforce and economy. A full report will be released later this summer.

Commissioned by the California Department of Food and Agriculture, the study exposes the consequences the prolonged drought has created for both the economy and agricultural workers in the nation’s largest fruit, vegetable and nut producing state. The study estimates that job losses in the agriculture sector will reach 14,500 this year, and the state’s economy will take a $1.7 billion hit. The estimates were calculated using computer models and recent water delivery figures.

The study also estimates that six percent of Central Valley farmland will lay fallow this year due to cuts in water deliveries, which amounts to around 410,000 acres of land. Central Valley farmers can expect about 1/3 less irrigation water this year than usual. With depleted rivers unable to sustainably support crop irrigation, farmers will need to pump more ground water, which is estimated to cost around $450 million.

Agriculture makes up less than three percent of California’s $1.9 trillion gross domestic product, but produces an important supply of health foods for the state and country.
 


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Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!