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2) U.S. & Iran conflict poised to drive fertilizer – not just oil – prices higher

Sprayer

Escalating U.S. military action in Iran is creating immediate and significant implications for global fertilizer markets.

With the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors—now under heightened threat, analysts warn that U.S. growers could face higher fertilizer prices and increased volatility heading into the 2026 planting season.

The Strait of Hormuz is vital to global fertilizer movement. 

Approximately 40–50 percent of internationally traded urea and nearly one-quarter of all globally traded nitrogen fertilizers pass through this narrow waterway.
 

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