Market shifts driven by crop weather trends and tariff changes
On the weekly podcast Ag Commodity Corner+ with experts Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the team agreed that markets moved positively during the week of February 16 to 21, 2026, after stronger fund buying supported soybeans, but new developments in US tariff policy added fresh uncertainty for traders.
The experts observed “more green” across commodity markets as several products reached new contract highs. Soybeans remained the strongest performer due to steady hedge fund buying, expectations of improved Chinese demand, and support from updated U.S. biofuel policies.
Although the market showed a brief price reversal, analysts noted that one day does not create a new trend.
Oats and cotton also displayed surprising strength. Cotton may be reacting to recent tariff decisions after a major US court ruling changed how tariffs could be applied, signaling possible shifts in global demand. Could the U.S. supreme courts ruling that struck down Trump's tariffs derail the Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans? (Read the article: U.S. Ag Groups React to Supreme Court Tariff Decision)
Despite these changes, market analysts believe tariffs will continue to influence trade, keeping volatility high.
The USDA’s latest outlook suggested that farmers may plant fewer corn acres and switch towards soybeans because of better price potential.
Lower corn acreage combined with expected yields may reduce ending stocks, creating opportunities for firmer prices.
Wheat markets continued to spike higher on better technicals and a fund short covering rally over U.S. winter wheat weather concerns for hot/dry in the coming months.
A massive wildfire in parts of Oklahoma and Kansas, fueled by strong winds and heat, highlighted ongoing drought risks. Long-term climate patterns suggest that dry conditions may spread northward in 2026, potentially affecting major crops like wheat, corn, and soybeans.
Crude oil prices also climbed due to increased geopolitical tensions, which could impact fuel costs for farmers.
Meanwhile, fund activity increased across grains, with investors reducing bearish positions and adding fresh buying in soybeans, canola, and wheat.
Agostino and Gopal advised farmers to remain patient, avoid early marketing decisions, and rely on risk management tools such as crop insurance.
With changing policies, unpredictable weather, and shifting market trends, the coming months are expected to bring both challenges and opportunities.
For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit things; Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.
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