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Navigating shifts in farm sector income for 2024

By: Farms.com  

The latest Farm Sector Income Forecast for 2024 released by the USDA Economic Research Service brings a mix of expectations for the agricultural sector.  

According to Tom Vilsack, the forecast suggests a return to more typical income levels for farmers, following three years of exceptional earnings. This recalibration is largely due to a decrease in global demand for U.S. commodities, which has led to lower commodity prices. 

The adjustment period follows a time of significant achievement for U.S. farmers, who have effectively met the challenges of a recovering economy by bolstering harvests and increasing stocks. However, the sector faces new hurdles, with certain costs, including those for labor and inputs like pesticides and livestock, moving upward. 

In response, the USDA is doubling down on efforts to support the farming community through strategic investments and policies aimed at ensuring fair competition and fostering new market opportunities. 

Initiatives funded by the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act are part of a comprehensive strategy to empower small and medium-sized farms, enhance economic resilience, and support rural communities. 

Vilsack's statement underscores the USDA's dedication to creating an agricultural economy that benefits all, emphasizing the need for robust price competition and increased earnings for farmers. 

With a focus on sustainability and innovation, the USDA's actions are set to navigate the agriculture sector through these changing economic waters, ensuring that farming remains a cornerstone of American life and prosperity. 


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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.