2022 Cattle and hog outlook update: Mixed profitability for Canada’s red meat sectors

May 17, 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the feed cost outlook for 2022, and stronger price volatility will continue for the remainder of the year, challenging profitability.

Cattle prices in 2022 are forecasted to remain at or above 2021, but margins will remain under pressure due to high feed costs. Feedlot margins are projected to be negative on average, while cow-calf margins are expected to be near break-even. Improved pasture and forage conditions in Western Canada will be critical for profitability in the cow-calf sector.

Ontario hog prices are projected to be significantly higher than the last few years, but margins are projected to be below the 5-year average due to higher feed costs. Quebec hog prices are subject to a temporary price adjustment based on an agreement between producers and processors. April Quebec hog prices were 13.5% lower compared to Ontario, according to AAFC data.

Quebec processors also agreed to reduce Ontario hog slaughters by 5,000 head per week during this time. High feed costs may also put pressure on feeder hog prices that are not fully captured in the Table 1 forecasts. Manitoba hog prices are forecast to be up significantly in 2022. Margins will be tight overall in the hog sector.

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Video: What Does 20 MILLION Hogs a Year Look Like?

?? The Multi-Plant System Processing 20 Million Hogs Annually in the Midwest JBS USA operates multiple large-scale pork processing facilities across the Midwest, including major plants in Iowa, Minnesota, and Indiana. Combined, these facilities have the capacity to process approximately 20 million hogs annually.

Each plant operates high-speed automated slaughter systems capable of processing up to 20,000 head per day, followed by fabrication lines that break carcasses into primals, sub-primals, and case-ready retail products.

Hog procurement is coordinated through electronic marketing platforms that connect regional contract finishing operations and independent producers to plant demand schedules. This digital procurement system allows for steady supply flow and scheduling efficiency across multiple facilities.

Processing plants incorporate comprehensive food safety systems, including pathogen intervention technologies, rapid chilling processes, and integrated cold-chain management. USDA inspection is embedded throughout the harvest and fabrication stages to ensure regulatory compliance and product integrity. Finished pork products — from bulk primals to retail-ready packaged cuts — are distributed through coordinated logistics networks serving domestic and export markets.