Beef Replacement Heifer Dynamics

Apr 06, 2026

By Tim Petry

The most asked question recently in the U.S. beef cattle industry is, “When will beef cow herd rebuilding begin.” That question is a result of seven straight years (2019-2025) of beef cow liquidation and record high cattle prices.

A number of obstacles including continuing and expanding drought conditions on a regional basis, production cost inflation, record high beef replacement heifer prices and more beef production due to higher fed cattle carcass weights may be hurdles to herd rebuilding.

One of the pieces to the beef cow herd restocking puzzle is the availability of beef replacement heifers to rebuild the herd.

The USDA-National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the annual CATTLE inventory report on January 30, 2026. It is available at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/h702q636h

NASS reported the Jan. 1, 2026, U.S. beef replacement heifer inventory at 4.7 million head, increased 41,700 head (1%) from the 4.67 million head last year indicating some interest in herd rebuilding where forage conditions are favorable. 2025 was the lowest number since 1950, and the slight increase in 2026 was still historically low. So, the availability of heifers for herd rebuilding is another obstacle to significant herd rebuilding.

After the last cyclical low in beef cow numbers on Jan. 1, 2014, with record prices, much improved moisture conditions allowed herd rebuilding to start in earnest. But there were more replacement heifers available then than now. Compared to the 4.7 million heifers available to begin 2026, there were 5.56 million heifers available to begin 2014 and 6.09 million available in 2015.

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Video: Learning to Wrench From Dad the Hard Way

Harvest is a week out and the farm picked this week to fall apart. The truck needs a battery, the barn curtain's got a problem, and the corn and beans are telling us we're out of time to get it all fixed.

So it's a full day of wrenching. Tork supervises while I get the truck back running, then we're out at the hog barn where one rusted up part has the whole curtain system hung up. Ladder work, cable work, and a little dad-and-son disagreement about the right way to do it. We close it out walking the fields, shelling beans and checking corn, because whether everything's fixed or not, harvest starts when harvest starts.

Chapters: 00:00 Everything breaks the week before harvest 01:00 Tork supervises while I fix the truck 12:30 Out to the barn to find the curtain problem 14:30 One rusty part hung up the whole curtain 20:00 Running the curtain cable from the ladder 24:00 Walking the beans and corn before harvest 26:30 Wrapping up

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