Can Old-Crop Soybean Prices Go Any Higher?

Feb 21, 2023

By Todd Hultman

Ever since Brazil's soybean crop was planted last fall, there never has been a period of time when the crop was in doubt. USDA estimated Brazil would have 152.0 million metric tons (mmt) of soybean production in October, and today the estimate stands at 153.0 mmt, or 5.62 billion bushels (bb). Not only is the current crop a new record high for Brazil, it also surpasses the old record, set two years earlier, by 13.5 mmt, or 496 million bushels (mb). Except for extremely dry conditions in Brazil's southern tip, the rains have been consistently available for central and northern Brazil. Even now as harvest is roughly 20% complete, the rainy season continues.

Just over five months ago, the U.S. ended its 2021-22 season with a soybean surplus of 274 mb, the second lowest finish for supplies in six years. After the drought-limited harvest of 4.276 bb in 2022, USDA now expects U.S. ending soybean stocks of 225 mb in 2022-23, the lowest in seven years.

The odd thing is that USDA's soybean crush total through December is 1% below last year's pace. At this point, I can only speculate as to why soybean processors haven't been buying up all the soybeans they can get. Maybe they're in no hurry to collapse the lucrative margins? Or maybe getting soybeans in this tight market is not so easy? Either way, the incentive remains intact for more purchases ahead.

I can't guarantee what soybean prices will do this summer and, for anyone paying high interest rates on operating loans, there is nothing wrong with selling cash soybeans in the current environment, priced Thursday at $14.88 on DTN's National Soybean Index. For those that can afford the risk, however, there is still a bullish case to make for old-crop soybean prices, even with Brazil's record harvest on the way.

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Video: From Conventional to Regenerative: Will Groeneveld’s Journey Back to the Land

"You realize you've got a pretty finite number of years to do this. If you ever want to try something new, you better do it."

That mindset helped Will Groeneveld take a bold turn on his Alberta grain farm. A lifelong farmer, Will had never heard of regenerative agriculture until 2018, when he attended a seminar by Kevin Elmy that shifted his worldview. What began as curiosity quickly turned into a deep exploration of how biology—not just chemistry—shapes the health of our soils, crops and ecosystems.

In this video, Will candidly reflects on his family’s farming history, how the operation evolved from a traditional mixed farm to grain-only, and how the desire to improve the land pushed him to invite livestock back into the rotation—without owning a single cow.

Today, through creative partnerships and a commitment to the five principles of regenerative agriculture, Will is reintroducing diversity, building soil health and extending living roots in the ground for as much of the year as possible. Whether it’s through intercropping, zero tillage (which he’s practiced since the 1980s) or managing forage for visiting cattle, Will’s approach is a testament to continuous learning and a willingness to challenge old norms.

Will is a participant in the Regenerative Agriculture Lab (RAL), a social innovation process bringing together producers, researchers, retailers and others to co-create a resilient regenerative agriculture system in Alberta. His story highlights both the potential and humility required to farm with nature, not against it.