2026 Could See Rebound in Ag Equipment Sales

Jul 17, 2025

During the 2025 Executive Briefing Mid-Year Review held June 5, Pinion’s Marc Johnson provided an updated outlook on the ag equipment industry, from supply chains to production in both large and small ag, noting that 2025 will continue to be challenging but there’s some optimism 2026 will see improvement.

In comparing numbers from a supply chain perspective from 2015-2024, he identified a big spike in 202 -2022 when a large amount of equipment was sold. Since then, he adds, the manufacturers have been sending less and less equipment to dealers to sell. For the last 8-9 months, Johnson reports, he found most manufacturers have cut production significantly, 30% or better, such that year-over-year deliveries are all down, from 15, 35 and 40%.

Production is measurably down in both small and large ag, reports Johnson. This means equipment dealers are getting less deliveries, which is actually a small positive in that it is helping to slightly bolster used equipment prices. For perspective, he reminded dealers that they would be much worse off were they getting large deliveries at this point in the market.

Looking ahead, Johnson noted that at some point, the manufacturers are going to “turn the spigot back on and make us take all their deliveries again,” although he said no one is certain when that may be. Pinions forecast, he said, is for fairly flat growth in the remaining quarters.

“When growth is less than 5%, your expenses grow more than you can handle and you go backward. That’s right at about 0%. In other words, it looks like 25 is going to be another 2024, depending on what you did with your inventory at the end of 2024 … If you headed into 2025 with a lot of it and you didn’t do anything about the prices, you’re probably feeling that pinch right now, and showing some losses on your books for the year. If not, then you’ve got a little bit of a gain.

Johnson says that when looking at the top dealers in the country now, they’re at about 83% absorption. He added that they have about 114% of their equity tied up in used inventory, with a net return on sales for the year about 1.1.

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