Hog Outlook: The April WASDE lowered USDA's forecast of 2014 pork production

Apr 11, 2014

Ron Plain and Scott Brown
University of Missouri
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U.S. pork exports were up 5.5% in February compared to a year ago thanks to increased shipments to Mexico, China and Colombia. Imports of pork into the U.S. were down 6.7% in February due to less pork coming in from Canada. During February, pork exports equaled 22.75% of production and imports equaled 3.45% of production. The increase in exports is encouraging news given U.S. pork prices are at record levels.

Feeder pig imports were down 9.7% in February. Imports of other hogs were down 12.2%.

The April WASDE lowered USDA's forecast of 2014 pork production. They now predict 2014 pork production will be down 1.9% from last year to the lowest level since 2011. USDA's forecast for live hog prices in 2014 is for an average somewhere between $72/cwt and $75/cwt which is well above the 2011 record of $66.12/cwt.

Domestic meat demand in February was up 2.7% with pork demand up 5.9% compared to a year ago. Export demand for U.S. pork was up 13.4% in February.

The average live weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week, 285.5 pounds, was record high for the third consecutive week. Last week's average was up 0.5 pound from a week earlier and up 8.3 pounds from a year ago.

Cash hog prices this week were sharply lower. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $119.30/cwt, down $6.04 from last Friday, but up $43.34 from a year ago. The eastern corn belt reported a morning average of $119.01/cwt. The western corn belt had a morning price quote of $119.67. There was no Iowa-Minnesota hog price quote this morning. Peoria had a top live price today of $85/cwt. Zumbrota, MN had no price report today. The top price Friday for interior Missouri live hogs was $87.50/cwt, down $3 from the previous Friday.

Friday morning's pork cutout value was $125.12/cwt FOB the plants, down $7.34 from the week before and up $44.75 from a year ago. This morning's hog carcass price averaged 95.3% of the cutout value.

There were 257 new farms with positive tests for the PED virus during the week ending on March 30. That was the second lowest week since mid January. Hopefully, new outbreaks will continue to decline as the weather warms. There are now more than 5,500 U.S. hog farms with the PED virus.

Hog slaughter this week totaled 2.02 million head, down 0.5% from the week before and down 2.8% compared to the same week last year.

The April lean hog futures contract settled at $124.92/cwt today, up $1.77 from the previous Friday. May hog futures ended the week at $120.60/cwt, up 10 cents from the week before. June hogs gained 67 cents to close at $121.22/cwt. The July contract ended the week at $117.55/cwt, unchanged for the week. August closed at $116.60/cwt, off 55 cents from the previous Friday.

Source: AGEBB

Video: Secure Pork Supply Plan | Preparing for the Future | U.S. Pork Producers

Join Jill Brokaw, a third-generation pig farmer and staff member of the National Pork Board, as she dives into the vital role of the Secure Pork Supply (SPS) Plan in preparing the U.S. pork industry for potential foreign animal disease outbreaks. This video is an essential watch for pork producers who are looking to safeguard their operations against the threats of diseases like foot and mouth disease, classical swine fever, and African swine fever.

Why Should Pork Producers Care? An outbreak of foreign animal diseases in the U.S. could lead to severe restrictions and potentially result in industry-wide financial losses estimated between $15 to $100 billion. The SPS Plan is a collective effort to prevent such catastrophic outcomes by enhancing biosecurity, ensuring animal traceability, and promoting effective disease monitoring.

What You'll Learn:

The Importance of Preparedness: Understand why being proactive is crucial for maintaining business continuity during an outbreak. Enhanced Biosecurity Measures: Write a site-specific biosecurity plan that can serve as the first line of defense against potential outbreaks. Animal Disease Traceability: Learn about the significance of tracking animal movement and how acquiring a premises identification number (PIN) and using AgView can facilitate this process. Disease Monitoring: Find out how continuous observation and reporting can keep your herd healthy and disease-free.

Getting Started with SPS: The video breaks down the seemingly daunting task of preparing for a foreign animal disease outbreak into manageable steps. With free resources available at www.securepork.org, including templates and instructions, Jill guides producers on developing a customized plan to enhance their farm's defenses.

Expert Insights: Hear from Dr. Pam Zaabel on collaborating with your herd veterinarian to develop and implement your SPS plan effectively.

Takeaway: The Secure Pork Supply initiative is more than a plan; it's a commitment to the resilience of our food supply and the livelihoods within the pork industry. By embracing these proactive measures, we can collectively enhance our preparedness for foreign animal disease outbreaks.