By Kay Ledbetter
For much of the sorghum-growing regions of the state, the arrival of rain and the amount that fell have dictated this year’s outlook, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert.
Ronnie Schnell, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension statewide cropping systems agronomist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Bryan-College Station, said there is a wide range of growth stages and growing conditions across the state as the Rio Grande Valley prepares to begin harvesting sorghum and the Panhandle finishes planting.
“Going into the season, the weather was not good with conditions being very dry across most of the state, and then the prices also were not good,” Schnell said. “We are hoping to get some rain to make good yields and get through this season.”
Market outlook
Mark Welch, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist-grain marketing and policy and professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Bryan-College Station, said the 2024 marketing year is wrapping up with sorghum exports basically shut off to China due to tariffs and trade disputes. That disruption is limiting commodity movement and pushing the basis the difference between the local cash price of grain and the futures price lower.
“The basis is really what we talk about with sorghum because the price relative to corn is in a more negative position when we have limited export potential,” Welch said. “We see a situation of that export potential being cut off in the current environment.”
However, the U.S. Department of Agriculture in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for sorghum in May shows a strong rebound in sorghum export sales. That would be good news if that comes about for the 2025 sorghum crop, Welch said.
USDA’s prediction of sorghum production is expected to be higher in acreage and average yield in 2025, which means higher supplies. This will mean the export category of the market will be essential as the crop year moves forward.
Conditions around the state
Prices aren’t the only thing out of producers’ control. Schnell said while early growing conditions are shaping up nicely in some areas, timely rainfall will determine outcomes for many farmers.
Sorghum is more drought-tolerant than some other warm-season crops, Schnell said, and, for the most part, is progressing despite dry conditions to begin the season around much of the state.
While sorghum acres in the San Antonio region and south are very dry, in the bigger production zones around Corpus Christi, most stands look good after receiving timely rain, Schnell said.
The Rio Grande Valley is seeing mixed progress in sorghum stands, depending on planting dates. Without irrigation water this year, many fields did not establish until the region received heavy rainfall in March. Some producers planted fields immediately after the rain. So, while harvest typically starts in June, it will be delayed for many fields this year, he said.
Producers in Central Texas planted fewer sorghum acres this year, but what is there looks to be in fair condition, Schnell said. Near San Angelo, fields picked up some rain, and the crop is coming along, but most areas needed more rain.
In Northeast Texas, they have the opposite problem of most areas.
“If you move into the Hillsboro area and north and east of Dallas, there are areas where we’ve had a little too much rain, and the crop is a little stunted,” he said.
Some of this area saw some yellowing of the sorghum because the plants were standing in the water too long, Schnell said. But sorghum is resilient; once the soil dries down, the crop will grow again.
The South Plains and Rolling Plains crops are just coming up but have received some timely rains that will help production.
Overall, sorghum acreage is expected to be steady to slightly up, depending on how much is planted for grain sorghum and sorghum silage up in the Panhandle, he said. Planting is just getting underway in that region.
Source : tamu.edu