Unclear Future for U.S. Corn Ethanol Jet Fuel

Apr 28, 2025
By Farms.com

Corn Ethanol Faces Hurdles in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Expansion

The U.S. ethanol industry faces mounting uncertainty as it tries to pivot into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) fuel, made from ethanol, holds promise but several hurdles block rapid progress.

U.S. ethanol output reached 16.2 billion gallons in 2024, almost all from corn. Yet, rising electric vehicle use and falling gasoline demand threaten traditional ethanol markets. Export opportunities are also projected to shrink in 2025, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The lack of an approved Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) pathway for converting corn ethanol to jet fuel is a major obstacle. Although a petition is pending, the Environmental Protection Agency’s review process is detailed and slow.

Biofuels must cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50% compared to a 2005 baseline to qualify for D4 RINs. Otherwise, they may only earn less-valuable D6 RINs.

LanzaJet is currently the only U.S. ATJ producer, using sugarcane ethanol imported from Brazil at its Georgia facility. “Soils have been a passion of mine, and I love to share it with others,” said Brandon Hall. However, LanzaJet’s model is facility-specific and cannot yet be adopted by other ethanol producers.

The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit further complicates matters. Ethanol intended for SAF production earns less value compared to ethanol blended into gasoline, making pricing less competitive against petroleum-based jet fuel.

SAF production in early 2025 has been slow, with less than 30 million gallons produced. The Farmers First Fuel Incentive Act, if passed, would limit 45Z benefits to US-grown feedstocks, helping U.S. corn producers but challenging companies relying on imports.

Ethanol producers are ready to supply billions of gallons for SAF, aligning with national energy goals, but faster EPA approvals and stronger policies are essential for real progress.

Video: Western Canadian Agriculture: Hard Times Made the World's Best Farmers

Western Canadian agriculture produced the most advanced farmers in the world not through abundance but through adversity. The crow rate fell. The wheat price went nowhere. The brown envelopes stopped.

When the subsidies disappeared, the bad farmers left and the good ones stayed. And the ones who stayed could not just grow wheat anymore. They started growing lentils and canola and peas and flax and faba beans. They built crop rotation. They got serious about agronomy because there was no government backstop. That process produced the Western Canadian agriculture Dennis Bulani describes in this clip: the most advanced, most educated farming culture in the world.

His contrast with Iowa corn and soybean farmers is sharp. At a DeKalb farmer meeting in Okoboji, Iowa, he asked what crop rotation they ran. Beans on corn stubble, corn on bean stubble. How do you fertilize? The co-op agronomist handles it. Have you considered other crops? No need. We make so much money on corn and soybeans. Western Canadian agriculture was never allowed that comfort. And now those Iowa farmers are watching soybean markets lock up with China and corn prices slide, and they do not have the agronomy knowledge or the research base to pivot. Western Canadian farmers adapted on a dime because they had done it before.

Dennis also makes the case that Western Canadian agriculture keeps adapting in real time. Low commodity prices over the past year have pushed growers to look seriously at precision spot-spray technology. He knows a neighbor who bought a sprayer with the seeing-eye system and sprayed only 80 out of 320 acres. As a chemical retailer Dennis acknowledges that will affect his sales. He supports it anyway, because if it advances Canadian agriculture and makes farmers money, that is a good outcome.

The lesson Dennis draws from the tale of two farms: continuous improvement is the only durable strategy. When canola was $22 a bushel some growers went to Arizona instead of the Crop Production Show. When the price came down those same growers came back to the research and the discipline. Products do not go on Rack Petroleum's shelves unless they pass a replicated trial first. That is what Western Canadian agriculture built through hard times: farmers who do the work whether the times demand it or not.

Dennis Bulani is CEO of Rack Petroleum and Ultimate Yield in Biggar, Saskatchewan. Dan Aberhart hosts GTF Productions, Western Canadian Agriculture's foremost live briefing platform and its foremost AI training platform for ag operators