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USDA Expects Upward Revision in Canadian Canola Production Estimate

A USDA official said he expects the latest 2022 Canadian canola production estimate to be revised higher, up to around 19 million tonnes. 

Aaron Mulhollen, USDA crop assessment specialist for Canada and the Caribbean, said the US government considers the Statistics Canada canola production estimate of 18.17 million to be preliminary rather than final. 

“We expect an increase to the current StatCan estimate will occur in the coming year, and, if average, that increase will result in a final production estimate for the 2022 season to be near 19 million tonnes,” Mulhollen wrote in an email. 

In its last crop production report for the 2022 growing season earlier this month, StatsCan surprised traders and analysts by lowering its canola production forecast by roughly 900,000 from its model-based projection in September. In its subsequent monthly supply-demand update, the USDA failed to follow StatsCan’s lead and trimmed its own estimate of the Canadian canola crop by 500,000 tonnes from November to 19 million. 

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