USDA Feed Outlook

Forecast higher yields boost 2015/16 U.S. corn supplies to a near-record 15,415 million bushels. Corn for ethanol use is lowered 75 million bushels as it is displaced by sorghum, which has become more price-competitive. Corn exports are lowered 50 million bushels and feed and residual use is raised 25 million. The resulting decline in total corn use dampens price prospects by $0.15 per bushel to $3.65 at the midpoint of the projected range. Sorghum balance sheet changes are extensive. Sorghum supplies for 2015/16 are raised 21 million bushel, also with higher yields. A large increase in projected sorghum use for ethanol and a smaller gain in feed and residual use more than offset a 105-million-bushel decrease in projected exports. The season-average price received by sorghum farmers is dropped $0.40/ per bushel to $3.60 at the midpoint of the projected range.

Large downward revisions to recent years’ historical corn feed and residual use for China boost 2015/16 global coarse grain beginning stocks to record levels. With reduced projected world use this month, ending stocks are expected to continue to increase in 2015/16, with most of the increase in China and the United States. U.S. sorghum export prospects are cut 3.5 million tons for the October-September trade year, with U.S. corn exports reduced 1.0 million tons. In line with production changes, corn exports are projected higher for Argentina and Brazil, but lower for Ukraine.

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Source: USDA