RICE: The changes made to the U.S. 2012/13 rice supply and use balances this month are confined to the trade categories and ending stocks. The 2012/13 all-rice import forecast is raised 0.5 million cwt to 21.5 million, based largely on the pace of imports reflected in the U.S. Bureau of the Census import data through January—all in long-grain rice. On the use side, the all-rice export forecast is increased 2.0 million cwt to 108.0 million—all in long-grain rice. The rough rice and milled export (rough-equivalent basis) forecasts are each raised 1.0 million cwt to 35.0 million and 73.0 million, respectively. Increased export commitments to Iran and Western Hemisphere markets support the increase in the 2012/13 export projection. Export commitments for 2012/13 through the end of February are up 19 percent from a year ago according to the latest USDA’s U.S. Export Sales report. All rice ending stocks are projected at 29.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million from a month ago—all in long-grain rice. Long-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 16.4 million cwt, the lowest stocks since 2003/04. Medium-/short-grain ending stocks are unchanged at 10.5 million cwt.
The 2012/13 long-grain, season-average price is raised 20 cents per cwt at the midpoint to $14.50, the medium/short grain price is lowered 30 cents per cwt at the midpoint to $15.90, and the all rice season-average price is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt at the midpoint. Global 2012/13 rice production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all up from a month ago. World rice production is forecast at a record 468.1 million tons, up 2.3 million
from last month, largely due to increases for Cambodia and India. India’s rice crop is projected at 102.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month, but down 4.3 million from record 2011/12. The increase in India’ s crop is due entirely to the larger Kharif rice crop now forecast by the government of India at 90.7 million tons, up 4.5 million from an earlier forecast. The Rabi rice crop is expected to be down from last year due to late planting and a lower expected average yield. World consumption is forecast at a record 470.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month, owing mostly to increases for Cambodia, India, and Peru. The increase in global trade is relatively small. Global 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 103.3 million tons, up 1.4 million from a month ago, but down 2.2 million from last year.