COARSE GRAINS: Projected U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are raised slightly this month with a 5-million-bushel increase projected for corn imports. With a record crop now estimated for Canada, additional quantities of Canadian corn are expected to find their way into the U.S. market. U.S. corn use for 2013/14 is projected higher with increases for food, seed, and industrial use and for exports.
Corn used in ethanol production is projected 50 million bushels higher reflecting the strong pace of weekly ethanol production since mid-October. Exports are also projected 50 million bushels higher based on the pace of sales to date and higher expected global consumption. Projected U.S. ending stocks are lowered 95 million bushels.
The 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents lower at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.05 to $4.75 per bushel based on prices reported to date. Average prices received by farmers, however, are expected to continue to be reported above prevailing cash bids well into early 2014 as some sales will reflect the higher forward prices available before harvesting.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 3.6 million tons higher. At 1,420.5 million tons, supplies are up 122.8 million from 2012/13 and 103.1 million above the previous record in 2011/12. Corn accounts for more than 80 percent of the increase over this period with 2013/14 world corn production up 101.4 million tons from last year. Global corn output for 2013/14 is raised this month with Canada and Ukraine increased 1.1 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively. Partly offsetting are 0.4-million-ton reductions for both the European Union and Kenya.
World barley and oats production are also raised, up 1.7 million tons and 0.8 million tons, respectively. Barley production is raised 1.2 million tons for Australia and 0.8 million tons for Canada. Partly offsetting are small reductions for Iran and the European Union. Oats production is raised 0.6 million tons for Canada with small increases also for the European Union and Australia. World sorghum production is lowered 0.4 million tons with smaller crops projected for India and Australia.
Global 2013/14 coarse grain consumption is raised 4.3 million tons with half of the increase from higher foreign corn consumption. Corn feeding is raised for Canada, the European Union, and Ukraine. Foreign barley and oats consumption are also raised with increased barley feeding in Australia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Canada, and increased oats feeding in Canada.
Higher coarse grain production in Canada, Australia, and Ukraine support increased use for these countries and higher imports allow for the increases for the European Union and Saudi Arabia. Global corn exports are raised 1.8 million tons with increases for the United States and Canada. Global barley exports are raised 0.9 million tons with increases for Australia, Ukraine, and Canada. World corn ending stocks are projected 1.9 million tons lower as the U.S. reduction is only partly offset by a 0.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine.
Source: USDA WASDE