USDA August crop report raised corn yields and stocks -- pressuring markets
On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast with Farms.com Risk Management Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the focus turned to the USDA’s August crop report.
The USDA shocked markets by raising corn yields by more than average market expectations, from 181 to 188.8 bushels per acre, alongside higher corn acreage. This boosted ending stocks above two billion bushels for 2025–26, pressuring corn prices. However, history shows that August figures often prove inflated, and disease pressures this year in Iowa could eventually lower yields.
In contrast, soybeans gained support. Despite a yield increase, acreage reductions kept supplies tighter, supporting futures. Crush data was also stronger than expected, and technical charts suggest potential for soybeans to test higher resistance levels toward $12 per bushel if a U.S.-China trade deal is reached sooner than later.
Global headlines also influenced markets. President Trump suggested China could boost soybean orders, while trade tensions flared after China imposed 75.8% tariffs on Canadian canola. This hit prices hard, though Canada is exploring new opportunities by restricting used cooking oil imports to support local farmers.
Outside grains, livestock markets held firm through the summer grilling season, though seasonal weakness is expected into fall. Meanwhile, over 700 wildfires continue to burn across Canada, raising questions about crop damage from smoke and reduced sunlight both in Canada and the United States.
As markets look ahead, attention will shift to the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and September’s USDA report, which could set the stage for where corn and soybean prices head into harvest.
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