Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) updated its 2023-24 and 2024-25 balance sheets based on information available as of July 15.
For 2023-24, the outlook remains largely unchanged as the crop year for most crops closes at the end of July. Total supply for all principal field crops declined notably due to a significant decrease in western Canadian production as a result of drought in large portions of the Prairies. The reduction in supply combined with an increase in domestic use more than offset the decline in exports and led to carryout stocks (ending-year inventories) declining year-over-year. Prices for most principal field crops are projected to be significantly lower than last year, although pulses prices are expected to increase.
For 2024-25, the outlook incorporates the most recent data from Statistics Canada’s June 27 acreage data. Total area seeded to principal field crops in Canada in 2024 is estimated to have decreased marginally from 2023, with increased area for pulses and special crops estimated to have offset reduced area seeded to wheat, oilseeds, and coarse grains. In Western Canada, growing conditions continued to improve throughout June, although drought continued in northwestern Alberta as observed in the Canadian Drought Monitor. Overall yield expectations have been increased from the June AAFC outlook, with yields increased for wheat, corn and for pulse and special crops, assuming normal weather conditions and timely rains for the remainder of the growing season. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to decline year-over-year, in line with lower world values.
According to provincial crop reports, the spring wheat crop is faring well with 90% rated in good to excellent condition in Saskatchewan and 79% in Alberta. As a result, yields are forecast at 3.6 MT per hectare, with production forecast at 29.1 MMT and total supplies at 31.6 MMT.
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