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Cotton and Wool Outlook, September 2019

U.S. cotton exports for the 2017/18 and 2018/19 marketing years were adjusted upward in September based on a reduced unaccounted estimate for each year that more closely reconciles reported cotton stocks with related supply and demand data. The unaccounted estimate has grown in recent years, indicating a cotton balance sheet discrepancy. The estimates for production, mill use, and stocks have maintained their consistency over this time, but a growing percentage difference has occurred between the cotton export sources—the U.S. Census Bureau and USDA’s U.S. Export Sales reports (fig. 1).
 
The variation between Census and USDA export data averaged 2 percent during 2007/08-2016/17. Beginning in 2017/18, the difference reached 5.5 percent and climbed to nearly 8 percent in 2018/19. As a result, these export estimates were further reviewed—given the reported stocks and implied unaccounted estimates—resulting in revised exports equal to the average reported by the two sources.
 
 
 

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For over two decades, Dr. Mitloehner has been at the forefront of research on how animal agriculture affects our air and our climate. With deep expertise in emissions and volatile organic compounds, his work initially focused on air quality in regions like California’s Central Valley—home to both the nation’s richest agricultural output and some of its poorest air quality.

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